http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2006/03/23/ramblings/stat-analysis/3774/

whether you believe in his system or not, I was looking around for some other articles of his and found these interesting notes from a piece he wrote during the next draft when discussing Jamarcus Russell and Brady Quinn.....

""  So, overall Russell has a pretty risky profile from a scouting perspective. He might be great, but he could be the next Jeff George (which, unless you’re Jason Whitlock, is not a good thing). That could be enough to keep teams from taking him first, but probably not. Here’s something that should: Russell started only 29 games at LSU. Over the past ten years, collegiate games started has been the single greatest predictor of NFL success for early first-round quarterbacks. Since 1997 seven quarterbacks who started fewer than 30 games in college have been drafted in the top ten: Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Michael Vick, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Alex Smith. Who’s the best player on that list? Michael Vick? Alex Smith? I don’t even know. All I know is that list does not leave me saying, “I gotta get me some of that.”  ""

Coincidence?  maybe.  but something to take note of.  here is another one...

"" In my opinion, Quinn’s college stats match up pretty well with his scouting profile. He completed 58.0 percent of his passes in college and started 46 games. This projects Quinn as a good pro quarterback, but not a great one. Here is the complete list of players drafted in first two rounds over the past ten years who started at least 35 games and completed at least 57 percent of their passes: Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler. ""

There are a couple guys in that list I wouldnt want, but overall thats a pretty high percentage of solid players.  If those two simple stats, 35 career starts and 57 comp%, can weed out the Akili Smiths, the Alex Smiths, the Ryan Leafs, etc... thats a pretty useful model to follow.

Anyways, this is what he wrote about some of this years prospects... kinda surprised he is down on Henne as much since he falls under the 35 starts/57 comp% list. 

Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College

Matt Ryan is the quarterback for the surprisingly decent Boston College football team whose nickname, "Matty Ice" is punned off of the worst tasting alcoholic beverage in America not named "Milwaukee's Best." Although Ryan is lauded with carrying the Boston College Eagles on his back to a 11-3 record, he is not a terrific prospect according to Lewin's system. In fact, since wrestling the starting job from Quittin' Quinton Porter, Matt Ryan's completion percentage has gone down every year, to a 59.3% coda as a senior. His completion percentage is all the more unimpressive when you consider that his stregth is supposedly in making high percentage short and medium range throws.

Although NFL teams may swoon in the face of "Matty Ice"'s intangibles, my feeling is that if you draft based on intangibles you get intangible results. Matt Ryan, in fact, reminds me of a certain other college prospect with a pedestrian senior completion percentage and had leadership ability and other intangibles in spades. I wonder how he turned out? (JOEY HARRINGTON)

Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville

Among some followers, the struggle for the worst record in the NFL is often affectionately referred to as a "competition" for the perceived number one college player in the country. In 2006 it was the "Matt Leinart Sweepstakes" and in 2007 it was the "Quest for Quinn" (for the race for the worst record in 2009, I'm calling early dibbs on the name "Tourney for Teebow"). Ironically, the name often so associated with the first overall pick never quite turns out to be the actual first overall pick (Matt Leinart went off the board at number 10 and Brady Quinn at number 23). Such seems to be the case for 2008, wherein the team with the worst record in the NFL won what was widely referred to as (OK, maybe it was just me) the "Battle for Brohm." Yet, true to form, Brian Brohm isn't even in the conversation in the top five picks in the draft, and looks to be drafted sometime later in round one or perhaps even in the second round.

So what did Brian Brohm do to cause his draft stock to fall so sharply? He played on a team with a crummy defense! With the exception of a game against the formidable Murray State, Louisville's defense failed to hold a single team under 21 points in a game. Meanwhile, Brohm completed 65.1% of his passes, while throwing for 4,024 yards and 30 touchdowns. Considering that scouts have 44 games worth of tape on Brohm, and they still believe he belongs in the first two rounds, it looks like Brohm will likely prove to be the best quarterback of this draft class.

Joe "On-the-Attack-O" Flacco, QB, Delaware

Every year a quarterback is selected in the NFL draft solely for his ability to throw a football hard enough to break through a barn door. This year, that quarterback is named "Joe Flacco." Joe Flacco, unable to beat out current NFL-waiver wire star Tyler Palko for the starting job at Pittsburgh, transferred to the University of Delaware, whose football program should be currently defending a trademark lawsuit from the University of Michigan for stealing their uniforms. Once there, Joe Flacco logged two years as an "OK" Divsion I-AA quarterback. He's also a tall glass of water at 6'6", which means that the lucky team who drafts him will always be able to get that pesky can of tomato soup down from the top of the shelf.

A quarterback who completes only 63% of his passes in a spread offense against Division II-A competition usually does not develop into the stuff of NFL legend. Unless, of course, he is throwing the other 47% of his passes so hard that they can go back in time.

Chad Henne, QB, University of Michigan

The great thing about being the starting quarterback for the Michigan Wolverines is that you are guaranteed to be drafted by some NFL team who doesn't want to pass on a player who might be the next Tom Brady, even if you happen to be John Navarre. Enter Chad Henne, who played great as a freshman, but has not significantly improved since.

Although Henne has the reputation for being a smart, experienced passer with all of the "tools," his accuracy is streaky, which lead to a career completion percentage of 59.7% (as a point of reference, Tom Brady completed over 60% of his passes in his two years as a starter at Michigan). Combined with a lack of pocket presence and Drew Bledsoe-like mobility, Henne's most likely impact on the league is "career back-up."

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS    Joined: 10/1/2000 12:00:00AM

Brohm
Henne
Ryan

Looks like he values Josh Johnson over Joe Flacco when looking at the IAA players.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS    Joined: 10/1/2000 12:00:00AM

well keep in mind he said you should use this tool for evaluating QBs in the top 2 rounds.  he had a couple arguments for this but the main one is that if a guy is taken a lot lower, or not taken at all in Smith's case, its that the scouts have seen enough to determine that he is probably a long shot for NFL success.  And that you may see guys with good numbers, like a Paul Smith, but its been determined that he did so most likely because of the offense he plays in(June Jones, Mike Leach, Hal Mumme, etc...) or that he probably doesnt have the physical abilities.  Obviously there are guys like Tom Brady but those are very few and far between.

Andre Woodson is an example of another reason.  A guy that if he had been a senior in 2006, probably would have been a first or second round pick in 07.  But after one more season of play, defenses had a chance to learn his tendencies, and scouts had a chance to break down more and more film and find his faults.  and as a result, he stock plummeted and he was drafted much later than he would have been in the 07 draft.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS    Joined: 10/1/2000 12:00:00AM

Harper has only started 13 games.  all last year.  came in a few times in 06 but very little action.  so there isnt a whole lot of footage for scouts to break down.  and at most, he'll start 14 games this upcoming year.  itll be interesting to see where the scouts rate him as we get closer to draft day.  wont get to 35 career starts nor 30.  which means i guess you dont draft him top 10.  Harper does have a pretty good completion % so far.  65.3%  will be interesting to see how that changes this year.

Cantwell has only started 4 games in his three years behind Brohm.  he has thrown a pass in 15 games but in 10 of them he has only thrown 6 passes or less.  also he is only completing 58.6% of his passes which isnt all that great.  with so little action, I think his current draft status by NFLDraftScout is awfully premature.  a huge year would probably solidify him as a first day draft pick but would be scary to invest that high a pick on a guy who has essentially only played one season.

Stafford and Tebow are the top two juniors on NFLDraftScout's list. 

Stafford is essentially a two year starter but officially started only 21 games.  barring injury he will reach the 30 game plateau but would need to make the SEC title game to make 35.  so he will have the experience you like.  the big concern with him is comp%.  only 54.5% in his two years.  thats abysmal.  he did improve 3% from his fresh to soph year.  hopefully he'll be to take it up to over 60% as a junior.

Tebow is only a one year starter.  threw a few passes as a fresh but mostly in a trick play role.  so if he decides to leave early, which I dont see happening mind you, he'll be in the 26 to 27 starts range barring injury.  his comp% is very good but I think needs to come with an asterik.  throws a lot of bubble screens and short, quick timing passes which will increase that percentage.  its easy to look back and say Couch's numbers were inflated by playing under both Hal Mumme(Head Coach) and Mike Leach(Off. Coordinator).  But of course at the time no one knew by what degree their offense inflated QBs statistics.  I think NFL teams will be wary of Tebow's numbers though because we all know what Meyer's system did with Josh Harris and Alex Smith.  I must admit, I think when NFL scouts start breaking down Tebow, they wont like what they see.  he has the intagibles and the arm strength, but he isnt super accurate down the field, has a kinda long semi-loopy arm motion, and at times throws a really ugly ball.

Based on what I see, I wonder if Lewin is gonna really like the QB prospects for next year.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS    Joined: 10/1/2000 12:00:00AM