Usually ESPN will keep a page detailing each pick as they sign, but this year they've neglected to do so. As a result, I've taken up the task myself. I spent a good deal of time creating a list of all the picks that have signed to date in the thread entitled...

Draft Picking Signings

From this list we have enough to at least predict the Jaguars later round draft picks. So let's get started with Dee Webb at #236. For starters I'm going with the assumption that Vance is intent on signing the later round picks with three-year contracts. He could easily start signing them for four years, but in the past he's typically used three-year contracts with few exceptions.

So in particular I'm interested in the three-year deals around these numbers that we know of. In the seventh round these include...

• #234 William Montgomery (Panthers) - 3 yrs, $33,500
• #237 Stanley McClover (Panthers) – 3 yrs, $30,650
• #242 Mark Setterstrom (Rams) - 3 years, $29,000

With Dee Webb at #236, this is fairly easy. Between #234 and #237 we're talking about roughly $1000 difference between picks. There's also a tendency for the amount of the difference between picks to lessen as the numbers get bigger, and that's something to always consider when slotting picks like this. Just look at these numbers I'm thinking Dee Webb is going to sign a deal anywhere from $31,000 to $31,500. I'll predict $31,200, which is easily divisible by $10,400 per year. This bonus would give Dee a contract total of $1.11 mil.

At #213, James Wyche's contract isn't quite as easy. We'll need to consider the same Williams Montgomery contract, but that's the only contract in the 7th round near him. We might also take into account some late 6th round contracts which in turn has us looking at these deals...

• #203 Sam Koch (Ravens) – 3 yrs, $54,490
• #208 Derrick Martin (Ravens) – 3 yrs, $49,500
• #234 William Montgomery (Panthers) - 3 yrs, $33,500

But you also have to consider that there is often a steep drop-off from the last pick of a prior round to the first pick of the current round. A few picks around #213 in round seven, including #210, #215, and #219 have signed three-year deals, but unfortunately I don't have their contract numbers.

At any rate, we're talking about a difference of $16,000 spanning 25 picks, which suggests a difference per pick of $640. I'll need some more info to be really accurate, but for now knowing this much I'll predict a $45,000 bonus for Wyche giving him a total contract worth $1.125 mil. I may adjust this number (to possibly as much as $46,200) should more details become known prior to him signing.

For Brent Hawkins at #160 we could also use more info, but for now I'll use the following contracts...

• #146 Dawan Landry (Ravens) – 3 yrs, $129,000
• #167 Charles Davis (Steelers) – 3 yrs, $104,000

Here we're talking about a difference of $25,000 over 21 picks suggesting nearly $1200 per pick. Applying the same logic I'll predict a $111,750 bonus for Wyche giving him a total contract value of $1.19 mil over three years. I could better nail the number if I knew what the three-year deals for #154 or #155 were, but this number should be in the ballpark.

For Clint Ingram at #80 we'll need to consider...

• #72 Leonard Pope (Cards) – 3 yrs, $578,000
• #87 David Pittman (Ravens) – 3 yrs, $490,000
• #88 James Anderson (Panthers) – 3 yrs, $487,299
• #89 Rashad Butler (Panthers) – 3 yrs, $479,750

Having a few picks together like this helps to narrow in the number, although the drop-off between the two Panthers picks seems too great to apply to logic to so I'll throw out Butler's deal. The overall difference per pick between #72 and #88 works out to $5,670 per pick. This in turn leads me to predict a bonus of $532,500 for Ingram on a total contract worth $1.61 mil.

It's too early for me to predict contracts for Drew or Lewis.

 

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The Jaguars have their two seventh round picks in the fold after reaching a verbal agreement with defensive end James Wyche of Syracuse Monday.

Earlier in the day, Jacksonville native Dee Webb of Florida signed a four-year deal.

Both deals include a signing bonus and the minimum salaries for four years, starting with $275,000 base salary this year, with an escalator in the fourth year to the minimum tender.

But players have to reach both play time goals and the team has to improve in a team statistical category for them to get the bump in the fourth year.

Deciding how to structure the escalator has slowed the negotiations this year. If they reach the escalator, they get over $800,000 in their fourth season. If they don't, their base is $530,000. The players are then eligible for free agency after their fourth season.

The Jaguars still have to sign their top four picks, including tight end Marcedes Lewis and running back Maurice Drew.

The Baseball Hub

LOL. Considering they signed already, it's now too late to make a prediction. I have a lot of catching up to do with all of their draft picks having signed since my last post in this thread. I'll be sure to have everything updated by the conclusion of this weekend.

'02 Check out my CAP_INFO, and join my new WEBSITE. Coach Del Rio: "Respect every opponnent, and fear nobody."

Let me cover the more recent moves first, and then I'll have to dig deep to figure out what the draft picks signed for. Unfortunately the contract amounts for their first-day picks have not been revealed, but media estimates were made at the time, and we now have even more info to go on as for as slotting their bonus amounts properly. So I'll begin with Joseph, Spicer, and Connolly...

Ex-hurricane OLT Carlos Joseph was released. If you watched the last couple NFL Europe games you may have spotted Joseph playing DT. He looked good at it too, and perhaps should try out somewhere else at that position, but at OT he was squeazed out of the competition. Because Joseph was a roster-exempt player anyways, his release does not effect roster space prior to the final cutdown (they were at 85 players with 80 + 5 roster exempt players, but now they're at 84 with 80 + 4 roster exempt players including a rather impressive DT Walter Curry and a scrub DE named Elton Patterson who failed to impress this past season in Europe...the other two roster-exempt might be Leftwich and Mathis, but it's a long story why I'd guess those two).

Teams will sometimes release roster-exempt players in camp when they know they will not make their roster in order to give them a chance to catch on somewhere else. The thinking is that another team might pick him up because he would still be roster-exempt on their roster, so his release at this point in time was perhaps beneficial to him as a player. At any rate, Joseph's release had no effect on the cap. He was only signed on for this season at the rookie minimum salary ($275,000), meaning that salary was not counting among the 51 most expensive. And if he did receive a small signing bonus, like say $5,000, that money would still count as dead money.

Spicer's extension is something I have absolutely no info about, and nothing to even go on to make any kind of an estimate. I'm sure it included some kind of bonus with some or all of it counting this year. They have quite a bit of money left over, and while you don't want to spend recklessly, situations like this are ideal for carefully locking up core players for the next few years. Just to account for something I'll assume Spicer was given a $3 mil signing bonus for signing up for the third year, wherein he'd count an additional $1 mil this year. My cap estimate was recently updated so I think it's fairly accurate, meaning a new cap update may help better determine how much Spicer was given in the event I'm unable to dig up this info.

Other players they may consider for contract extensions include Terry Cousin, Deon Grant, Greg Jones, Byron Leftwich, and Daryl Smith. Fred Taylor might also be a candidate, but I think Vance already told his agents "not this year." You almost have to wonder what he'd be thinking if Greg Jones gets a new contract instead of him.

Next up I wanted to touch on Connolly in the event they place him on IR. The tough part is knowing if his contract included a "split salary," or if it's straight out salary. Having initially signed as an undrafted rookie, it's my hunch that it's a split salary, meaning that if they put him on IR his base salary would drop from $350,000 to I'm guessing $195,000 (his pre-CBA extension minimum plus the $40,000 that they're saying minimum salaries went up across the board). Because he's not counting among the 51 most expensive, his going on IR would not at present effect the cap, although after the final cut down he'd count, if my assumptions are correct, $198,333 while on IR. If he makes the final roster, or if his salary does not include the split salary clause, then he'd continue to count $353,333. Of note, if released (in the event they don't place him on IR, but he subsequently fails to make the roster), then he'd count $6,667 in dead money.

My next post will go in detail on the draft picks. I'd have updated them already if we were given their final details for their first three picks, but I believe I can track down the contracts of draft picks signed near them. Hopefully I can get back to this soon because I have to do that much before I can even arrive at a new estimate.

 

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I already did as much with Nick Greisen even though his contract details were never announced, although I ran across one site (jaguars.mostvaluablenetwork.com) claiming that his deal was worth $3.5 mil wherein I'll update my figure. Greisen's base salaries are $700,000 this year and $1.4 mil next year, which when subtracted from $3.5 mil means that his total bonus money must total $1.4 mil. I previously guessed that merely received a $700,000 roster bonus this year leaving him with the same cap hit in both years, but I've now revised that estimate to a $1.4 mil signing bonus.

In my last reply I took a guess at the bonus money involved in Spicer's extension. He was under contract for the next two years, and then added a third year (2008) in the extension, so I guessed that they gave him $3 mil to tack on that final year. I'm slightly revising that estimate now that his base salaries are up at the nflpa. His base salaries for the first two years remain the same at $1.25 mil and $1.5 mil, and then go up to $2.5 mil in '09. Now that I see they gave him $2.5 mil for that final year, and sort of knowing how Vance operates, it's now my guess that his bonus money equals his new base salary of $2.5 mil. This in turn means they gave him an extra $5 mil flat out for that third year, and that just sounds like something Vance would do.

Other signings, such as Shannon Snell who was just released, I'm sure were for the minimum with virtually nothing guaranteed. I'll conclude this by discussing their draft picks and the undrafted rookies, and then in my next reply I'll cover all the vets either sent to the IR list, the waived-injured list, or flat out waived.

Except for Marcedes Lewis who signed a 5-year deal, all of the Jaguars draft picks were inked to 4-year contracts with minimum base salaries. In other words, Drew, Ingram, Hawkins, and Webb all have the same base salaries ($275,000, $360,000, $445,000, and $530,000), but varying signing bonus amounts. Wyche had the same base salaries, but they were just wiped out with his release.

The three undrafted rookies who made the roster likewise have the same salaries for the length of their contracts. Montell Owens was inked for two years while Collier and McDaniel were both inked for three. For each of the undrafted guys I'm estimating a bonus amount of $2,500 per year that they're under contract for. Most of them were signed for less than that, but I'm purposely overcompensating to be safe. This means that M. Owens, Collier, and McDanieal are each estimated to count $277,500 this year while all of the other undrafted rookies who were waived are each estimated as counting $2,500 this year and either $5,000 or $7,500 next year. The players who subsequently make the Practice Squad I'll count separately at the estimated rate of $5,150 per week.  Connolly was placed on the IR list wherein I'm assuming that as an undrafted rookie he had a "split salary" clause in his contract. That clause means that instead of counting the full $350,000 salary, he should only be counting a $195,000 base salary plus his signing bonus hit (est. $2,500). 

Now for the draft picks...

The bonus amounts for Hawkins, Webb, and Wyche are known. Hawkins was given a $155,000 bonus, which in turn counts $38,750 per year (cap hit this year = $313,750), while Dee Webb was given a $44,250 bonus which in turn counts $11,063 per year (cap hit = $286,063). Wyche's bonus was $58,000, so with him being waived he'll count $14,500 this year and then another $43,500 next year.

Arriving at bonus estimates for the top three draft picks are where things get tricky. I've looked around for contracts signed near these guys, but to my surprise most teams are keeping rather hush, hush about what they gave their draft picks, , and that's unfortunate. I'll have to simply run with the media estimates for their bonus amounts. The T-U estimated Ingram's bonus as money as "somewhere in the $710,000 range," so I'll go with $712,500 as a reasonable estimate. That gives him a yearly bonus hit of $178,125.

The best estimate I've seen for Jones-Drew is that he received "$1.14 to $1.19 mil total guaranteed including an '07 option bonus." The '07 option bonus really throws off any estimate because there's no way of knowing how it's split up even if you did know the total. I'll guess $1,160,000 as a ballpark total with him receiving a $800,000 signing bonus this year and a $360,000 option bonus next year. This estimate leaves Drew with a $475,000 cap hit this year ($275,000 base salary plus $200,000 SB hit).

Finally, the 29th overall pick Marcedes Lewis was inked to a 5-year contract, although the terms of his contract are as mysterious as it gets. Nick Mangold at #29 received a 5-year deal worth $7.47 mil including $4.8 mil guaranteed. The media estimates are that Lewis received slightly more than this at $7.5 mil with $4.8 guaranteed. We've also been told that Lewis received a $715,000 roster bonus, which I'm thinking is on top of a signing bonus and a year-two option bonus.

That said, the $7.5 mil overall estimate sounds fishy because the #27 overall pick signed a 5-year deal worth "nearly $10 mil" with $5 mil guaranteed while the #26 overall pick signed a 5-year deal worth $8.6 mil and $5 mil guaranteed. I'm thinking the "nearly $10 mil" includes incentives for the RB, but the $7.5 mil total for Lewis still seems low. I tend to think that if Vance was lowballing him that much, he should have held out, so he probably got a bit more than that. To be safe I'll guess something towards the high end of the $7.5 mil range, as in $7,590,000 for a total.

At least we know his base salaries. Per the nflpa listings, they are...

• $275,000
• $360,000
• $582,500
• $830,000
• $1,077,500

These equal the NFL minimum his first two years, but go up after that. Altogether his base salaries total $3,125,000. Tacking on his roster bonus of $715,000 we can account for $3.84 mil of his total. Subtracting this from my overall estimate of $7.59 mil leaves me with $3.75 mil for his signing bonus and year two option bonus. Since he was also given that roster bonus this year, I'll guess that his signing bonus this year was $1.75 mil, and that his roster bonus next year is $2 mil. Adding up these bonus amounts is only $4.465 mil, but I'm thinking they also guaranteed his minimum salaries the first two years which in turn brings his "guaranteed total" to $5.1 mil. That's a bit higher than the $4.8 mil media estimate, but I suspect that estimate was based on what the #29 pick signed for.

I'll continue to look for more details on the contracts for the top three picks, as well as Spicer's new deal, but for now these assumptions should keep my figures fairly close. My next reply will deal recent moves, and will include a new estimate now that the league has converted from top-51 rules to everyone counting.

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In early August a few days after Joseph was released, the Jaguars released Huggins and Pinegar while signing Marler and Shannon Snell as replacements. Snell was in the books at the rookie minimum while Marler's minimum was $350,000, and both would have received very little if any bonus money. With neither player ranking among the 51 most expensive, these moves had no real effect on the cap.

Huggins was re-signed a week later along with Estandia as Toby Gowin and Kahlil Hill were waived. Hill likewise signed for little if any bonus money with a salary slated at the rookie minimum meaning his release had no real effect, but Gowin's release did have a slight effect. Gowin was believed to have signed a BSP (Beneficial Salary Program) contract with a $10,000 bonus wherein he was counting $510,000, and that does rank among the top 51. His base salary was replaced by a lesser salaried player on the top-51 list as his estimated $10,000 bonus became dead money.

A week later came the "first round of cuts." Huggins was again released along with Troy Edwards and Seth Marler. As stated above Marler wasn't even counting so his release had no effect, but Troy was believed to count $540,000 under his own BSP contract including a $40,000 bonus. Again, his base salary disappeared although that $40,000 became dead money.  In case you're wondering, a "BSP contract" means that the player is a 4+ year vet having signed a one-year minimum salary contract with bonus money of $40,000 or less. In these cases the team only has to account for their bonus money and $500,000 of their base salary with the league paying the rest of it.

The following day the team made six moves to get down to the 75-man limit. Greg Jones, Chris Roberson, Mike Williams, and Tony Williams were placed on the IR List while Brian Jones and Elton Patterson were placed on the waived-injured list. Unless these players have a "split salary" clause in their contract wherein their base salary would be considerably reduced when placed on IR, their entire cap hit continues to count in full. I speculated in my above reply that Connolly probably does have such a clause as a UDFA from last year, but I'm assuming here that none of these players' contracts included such a clause. Jones and Patterson continue to count while on the Jaguars waived-injured list, but if another team claims them they'll instead count on that team's roster. Should nobody claim them as of a set date, they'll automatically go on the Jaguars IR list with their cap hits still counting in full.

Most recently was the "second round of cuts" wherein the Turk earned his paycheck. This is when Connolly was placed on IR as previously discussed while 21 players in all were released. These 21 included Rich Alexis, Walter Curry, Jim Davis, Andre Economos, Greg Estandia, Derrick Fletcher, Wayne Hunter, Randy Hymes, Anthony Maddox, David Richardson, Brett Romberg, Shannon Snell, Fred Stamps, James Wyche, Todd Yoder, and six UDFAs (Fudge, George, Gibbons, Iwuh, McCullough, and Sharon). Estandia was initially claimed off waivers with no bonus money, so he doesn't even count the $2,500 I'm estimating for waived UDFAs. Similarly, Alexis, Curry, Davis, Economos, Fletcher, Hunter, Maddox, Richardson, Romberg, Snell, and Stamps are all down as counting minimal, if any, dead money. In each of these cases their cap hits were basically wiped out. Among these names, the only ones who were counting among the 51 most expensive were Hunter at $721,600, Fletcher at $585,000, and Romberg at $500,000. Everyone else counted either $275,000 (Curry, Davis, Economos, Snell, and Stamps), $350,000 (Alexis), or $425,000 (Maddox and Richardson).

Releasing Randy Hymes, James Wyche, and Todd Yoder did involve dead money. Hymes is counting $25,000 both this year and next year. Wyche, as mentioned in my reply above, is counting $14,500 this year and $43,500 next year. And Yoder is counting $166,667 this year and nothing next year.

Now I just have to finish updating my RAW DATA and SPREADSHEET, and I'll announce my new overall prediction for where they are in my next reply. Keep in mind that everybody counts from here on out as top-51 rules no longer apply. That is all 53 active players on the roster, everyone on the IR list and the waived-injured list, the Practice Squad, and all dead money. The Practice Squad is estimated to count $5,150 per player with eight players signed for 17 weeks. They may end up short a player for a couple weeks throughout the season, but if filled up all season long the total for the squad works out to $700,400. This amount counts in full on the cap as soon as the squad is filled up with eight players.

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