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Posted Wednesday, July 09, 2008 10:33 AM





Last Login: Today @ 2:49 AM
Bjagfan (7/9/2008)
Hey 02,

Just wondering if you had seen this...
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/nfl/salaries/2008/all.html

I'm completely unsure of where all those numbers are coming from, but that guy is doing some speculation about a 53 man roster in the uncapped 2010 season using alleged 2008 numbers... http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/michael_lombardi/06/25/roster.explanation/index.html
Interesting, but are those figures valid or just more speculation?

 

I recently noticed the site, and from talking with other fan capologists the list appears to be very accurate with few exceptions where contracts have changed. I'll have to find some time to go over the Jaguars numbers in details. This is a great find that should enable me to nail most of the numbers.

Just keep in mind that the site is only good for knowing the overall 2008 cap hits for players. Their "challenge" is as worthless as worthless gets because it overlooks so many factors. Cap hits are about contract structure and have little to do with the actual value of players.



'02

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Coach Del Rio: "Respect every opponnent, and fear nobody."

Post #550343
Posted Saturday, July 12, 2008 7:43 PM





Last Login: Today @ 2:49 AM
I'm starting to look into the descepencies in my estimated cap hits as compared to the site mentioned in the prior post, but this appears to be a project that may take a couple weeks. In the meantime let me touch on their recent signing of 5th round pick Thomas Williams.

Per the T-U, Williams signed a typical 4-year contract identical to Chauncey's (detailed above) except that his signing bonus is $174,500. This is on top of minimum salaries for the first four years, and there may or may not be an escalator in the fourth year. His cap hit this year works out to $338.625 ($295,000 base salary plus $43,625 SB hit). Subtracting his SB hit from the total brings the Jaguars overall estimate to $11.02 mil under the cap.



'02

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Coach Del Rio: "Respect every opponnent, and fear nobody."

Post #553043
Posted Sunday, July 13, 2008 12:16 AM





Last Login: Today @ 2:49 AM
As I alter my records, I'll explain here...

  • Angulo signed a three-year contract wherein I assumed he landed a minimal $30,000 signing bonus as a RFA. However, his cap hit is listed at $700,000 instead of $530,000, which now has me thinking he picked up a $180,000 roster bonus instead.
  • In several cases, past draft pick signings were estimated with their cap hits ending up being off by a few hundred dollars on average. I've adjusted these to their precise amounts, but I don't see the need to list all of these very minor adjusments.
  • Justin Durant reportedly received $1.72 mil in "guaranteed money." I had it split up as a $1.22 mil rookie signing bonus plus a $500,000 sophomore roster bonus. However, after comparing his listed cap hit with USA Today's salary database info, it appears that his bonus was actually split up as a $1.302 mil rookie signing bonus and a $418,000 rookie roster bonus. As a result, I changed his cap hit in my records from $1,175,000 to $695,500.
  • I estimated that Gilbert signed on with a $50,000 bonus and a $660,000 cap hit, but it appears he signed without any bonus. This in turn should qualify him for the Beneficial Salary Program wherein he's really only costing $445,000
  • John Henderson's numbers are off a tad. I had him landing a $7.6 mil signing bonus in '06, but it turns out it was a $6.45 mil signing bonus giving him yearly SB hits of $1.29 mil through 2010 (he won't have a SB hit in 2011). He also picked up at least $6 mil in roster bonus money the past two years. This year his cap hit equals his $1.4 mil base salary plus his $1.29 mil SB hit along with another $200,000 that I figure is probably another roster bonus paid this year. John's reported contract total exceeds what I'm listing for him, so it makes sense that there might be hidden roster bonus money in each year. Overall his cap hit changed slightly from $2.92 mil to $2.89 mil, but his remaining amortization dropped from $4.56 mil to $3.87 mil. His big base salaries start to kick in next year.
  • Maurice Jones-Drew's contract called for the same amount of bonus money that I'm estimating, but the structure is way different. I estimated an $800,000 rookie signins bonus plus a $360,000 sophomore option bonus. Instead I'm now thinking he took home a $400,000 rookie signing bonus along with a $125,000 rookie roster bonus, and then a $420,000 sophomore option bonus and a $230,000 sophomore roster bonus. Here's how his cap hits work out over the length of his contract...
    • 2006 - $100,000 SB hit + $125,000 roster + $275,000 salary = $500,000
    • 2007 - $240,000 SB hit + $230,000 roster + $360,000 salary = $840,000
    • 2008 - $240,000 SB hit + $445,000 salary = $685,000
    • 2009 - $240,000 SB hiy + $530,000 salary = $770,000

This is going to be a long process, and I'll have to stop here for now.



'02

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Coach Del Rio: "Respect every opponnent, and fear nobody."

Post #553178
Posted Thursday, July 17, 2008 7:10 PM





Last Login: Today @ 2:49 AM
continuing...

  • Marcedes Lewis' contract structure was clearly a bit different than I was assuming. I had him with slightly more bonus money overall, but the main difference was that he appears to have received a large year-two signing bonus in lieu of moderate signing bonuses in years one and two. To best match all of the results I'm looking at, I'm also now estimating that he has a $25,000 workout bonus in '08 through '10. On top of his salary (which was apparently guaranteed for his first two years in lieu of the workout bonus) and possible workout bonus, Lewis took home a $715,000 roster bonus as a rookie, and that was it. In year two it appears he took home a $3.51 mil signing bonus. His cap hits work out as follows...
    • 2006 - $275,000 salary + $715,000 roster = $990,000
    • 2007 - $360,000 salary + $877,500 SB hit = $1,237,500
    • 2008 - $582,500 salary + $877,500 SB hit + $25,000 workout = $1,485,000
    • 2009 - $830,000 salary + same as above = $1,732,500
    • 2010 - $1,077,500 salary (plus possible escalator) + same as above = $1,980,000
  • Vince Manuwai's numbers were way off, although his was a tough one as he signed a rather big contract with very few details reported. At any rate, I've spent the better part of an hour looking at his details and can't quite figure out what's going on. So I'm stopping for now and will resume research later on.




'02

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Coach Del Rio: "Respect every opponnent, and fear nobody."
Post #556795
Posted Tuesday, July 22, 2008 2:31 AM





Last Login: Today @ 2:49 AM
As I continue, I have to keep telling myself that the USA Today Salary Database is chalked full of errors. With that understanding, along with creative guessing as to just how they're screwing it up, I'm able to arrive at reasonable cap numbers for players.

Manuwai agreed to terms on his extension with the Jaguars back on December 24th, 2006. He signed the contract two days later. USA Today had him as having part of his extension's cap hit included in that year with cap hits suggesting his cap hits were spread out through 2010. But that just doesn't make sense. First of all, his cap hits would have to be spread out through 2011, and second, you have to sign before a deadline in November for a cap hit to count that year. By applying his first cap hit on the extension to 2007 instead of 2006, all the numbers appear to fall into place.

His five-year extension was reportedly worth $20 mil. Subtracting his base salaries from '07 through '11 leaves $8 mil to account for. His $3.2 mil cap hit this year only makes sense if he picked up a $6.5 mil signing bonus. To account for the difference I figure he also picked up a $1.5 mil roster bonus in '07. These numbers don't jive all that well with USA Today except that I do end up with the same cap hit for 2007 that they're showing. Using this assumption, Vince's cap hits work out as follows...

  • 2006 - $721,600 base salary
  • 2007 - $1,400,000 base salary + $1,300,000 SB hit + $1,500,000 roster = $4,200,000 cap hit
  • 2008 - $1,900,000 base salary + $1,300,000 SB hit = $3,200,000
  • 2009 through 2011 - $2.9 mil base + $1.3 mil SB hit = $4,200,000

Now that's at least making some sense.

 

Rob Meier's new deal has me scratching my head. I was given bonus numbers for him, but the resulting cap hit is different than what's being reported at the SI site. These numbers came out right around the same time Meier signed his deal so it's hard to know for sure that they're his post-extension cap hit. Since the info I received appears solid, I'm going to keep what I have already, but I will make a notation that his cap hit was reported as being about $1 mil less than I'm showing.

 

Looking at Reggie Nelson's numbers, I'm more confused than ever. In lieu of driving myself crazy, I again need to stop and pick this up later.



'02

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Coach Del Rio: "Respect every opponnent, and fear nobody."

Post #559478
Posted Tuesday, July 22, 2008 2:49 AM





Last Login: Today @ 2:49 AM
I need to quickly point out Trae Williams contract numbers. He received the same minimum base salaries over the next four years as the other two draft picks, although his signing bonus was $167,704. That gives him a cap hit this year of $336,926.

I've also been told that after this signing, the Jaguars are at $13.631 mil under the cap. Subtracting for Trae's SB hit brings my spreadsheet to $10.97 mil under. I reached this number after having adjusted my spreadsheet to match a May 31st cap quote that listed the Jaguars at $13.26 mil under. Given the extensions and signings since, it doesn't makes sense that they should have more cap room, but I'll reconsider where they're at after I conclude my project of going through all the player cap hits. There may even be a new cap quote out by then that makes more sense.

Of note, had I not adjusted my numbers for the May 31st quote, my spreadsheet would be showing them around $7.5 mil under. I really don't get how they're doing so much signing without their cap figure dropping at all, and it's even more bizarre when you figure in that they seem to be paying out mostly roster bonus in lieu of signing bonus. Keep your eyes open for any new cap quotes for all the teams. The bottom line is that they're somewhere between $7 and $14 mil under.



'02

Check out my 
CAP_INFO, and join my new WEBSITE.

Coach Del Rio: "Respect every opponnent, and fear nobody."

Post #559479
Posted Thursday, July 24, 2008 3:59 AM





Last Login: Today @ 2:49 AM
I'm getting closer to completing this task of going through all my cap details by comparing their cap hits to what's listed at the SI site linked above, and then adjusting my details when needed by also utilizing the USA Today database for help. Skipping ahead of the tough ones, I've adjusted several easy cap hits mostly including draft picks where I was only off by a couple thou on average. Others adjusted are...

  • I was estimating a $1 mil signing bonus on Dennis Norman's 4-year deal that he signed back in '06, but it turns out he only received $750,000. As a result his cap hit dropped from $1,100,000 to $1,037,500.
  • For Mo Williams I only knew about him getting a $3 mil roster bonus on top of his $1 mil salary, but he's listed with a $4.3 mil cap hit. Reports listed him with $4 mil "guaranteed," so I figured they must have guaranteed his salary this year since I had been informed that he had no additional signing bonus. But this extra $300,000 in his cap hit now makes me think he had a $1.2 mil signing bonus (instead of guaranteeing his first year salary) in addition to his $3 mil roster bonus, and that they said "$4 mil" because they simply rounded down from $4.2 mil.
  • I've verified that Reggie Williams' base salary increased from $605,000 to $810,000. This must have been from an escalator in his rookie contract, and it increases his cap hit from $1,632,000 to $1,837,000.
  • George Wrighster appears to have a $50,000 workout bonus in each year of his contract that I didn't know about, which is the only charge still being tacked onto his base salaries.
  • I was estimating that Joey Zelenka picked up a $200,000 signign bonus on his 2-year extension which expires after this season, but it now appears that he received only salary with no bonus. That said, I was mistakenly listing his salary at $670,000 while its actually $730,000.

To conclude this excersize I still need to figure out, or at least better estimate, the details for Reggie Nelson, Tony Pashos, Josh Scobee and Daryl Smith. Everyone else is either nailed or at least appears to be very close aside from incentives which are typically impossible to know. Once I complete their details as best I can, I plan to re-figure my entire spreadsheet. From their I'll do what I can to estimate where they are under the cap.



'02

Check out my 
CAP_INFO, and join my new WEBSITE.

Coach Del Rio: "Respect every opponnent, and fear nobody."

Post #561055
Posted Monday, July 28, 2008 4:57 AM