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RE: One Persons Opinion on the Jags Draft

DocBear68 — Tue, 13 May 2008 11:29:05 GMT

It's obvious that after Brady tore us up in the playoffs with 26 of 28 completions and really was only rushed on the first set of downs, that our linebacker coach (Del Rio) decided "ENOUGH". I think Harvey and Groves BOTH will see a LOT of action, because it will be Williams goal to have our defense in their backfield every down.

WE have a quarterback. We have running backs, NOW we have a defensive line, or will by Sept. Cornerbacks strong as well, linebackers, fair to good.

If our wide receivers work out ( the free agents) then we could very well be AFC champs. If we are, then we could very well be facing Brady once again, ( at home) and I will bet a stadium hot dog to a steak dinner, Brady will NOT be 26 of 28 in January.

RE: One Persons Opinion on the Jags Draft

JaxonJag24 — Tue, 06 May 2008 14:00:45 GMT

[quote][b]JAGFANNY (5/6/2008)[/b][hr]Didn't the Vikings give KC their #1 pick next year to get Jared Allen as well? We still have ours plus it would take a boat load of money to sign him to a new contract. Everyone is real liberal with shelling out Mr. Weaver's money. Finally, he is one DUI away from having to sit out an entire year.

As for Jason Taylor, Miami wanted a #1 pick - no more, no less. We didn't have to give up a #1 for Harvey plus he is a much younger player. Taylor may have 2-3 more good years left at best plus he is scheduled to make something like $8 or 9 mil this year. Who knows if he would be willing to renegotiate.

All in all I think getting Harvey was a good deal and not as expensive as it should have been based on draft pick value charts. Plus getting Groves in the 2nd round is pure icing on the cake.

Going into the draft if someone told you that the Jags would end up with not only Harvey in the 1st round, but also Groves in the 2nd would you have been happy? I know I would have been with our need to rush the passer better. The NE playoff game glaring pointed out that shortcoming.[/quote]

This debate will obviously continue for the next 3-4 years. By your statement, you are saying that Derrick Harvey is as good, or will be as good as Jared Allen or Jason Taylor. We've taken that chance.

Will we...Or won't we be happy with this decision?

We all saw the NE game...We all saw Tom Brady pick us apart without any pressure...We all know we desperately need a pass rush if we are to compete against the Colts and the Pats...We all know what Jared Allen or Jason Taylor brings to the table.

Going into the draft, if someone had told you the Jags would end up with Phillip Merling and Quentin Groves and only given up a 5th Rd. pick would you have been happy? What if we then traded another 5th to get RB Kevin Smith with the first pick in the 3rd; then got DE Jeremy Thompson with the 89th pick; and then got DT Red Bryant or Dre Moore in the 4th? We'd still have a 5th round pick to take Trae Williams or Thomas Williams. That would have made me happy too!

RE: One Persons Opinion on the Jags Draft

JAGFANNY — Tue, 06 May 2008 10:00:41 GMT

Didn't the Vikings give KC their #1 pick next year to get Jared Allen as well? We still have ours plus it would take a boat load of money to sign him to a new contract. Everyone is real liberal with shelling out Mr. Weaver's money. Finally, he is one DUI away from having to sit out an entire year.

As for Jason Taylor, Miami wanted a #1 pick - no more, no less. We didn't have to give up a #1 for Harvey plus he is a much younger player. Taylor may have 2-3 more good years left at best plus he is scheduled to make something like $8 or 9 mil this year. Who knows if he would be willing to renegotiate.

All in all I think getting Harvey was a good deal and not as expensive as it should have been based on draft pick value charts. Plus getting Groves in the 2nd round is pure icing on the cake.

Going into the draft if someone told you that the Jags would end up with not only Harvey in the 1st round, but also Groves in the 2nd would you have been happy? I know I would have been with our need to rush the passer better. The NE playoff game glaring pointed out that shortcoming.

RE: One Persons Opinion on the Jags Draft

JaxonJag24 — Tue, 06 May 2008 06:44:53 GMT

[quote][b]ATLjag (5/5/2008)[/b][hr]The draft is a crapshoot, with 1st rounders far more apt to pay off than later rounders (hence, they are exponentially more valuable). Yes, there are many first rounders that fail....but there are far more 3rd and 7th rounders that fail as a percentage. The draft value charts were built statistically using real historical data on the 'goodness' of the selections at that particular pick. Yes, they could have chosen a DE later in the draft, but his probability of being a solid or impactful player was significantly lower.

I think both sides, draft trade-up and free agent acquisition, were viable solutions to the problem of a defensive end positon (w/pass rush) upgrade. Each one had its own set of risks (bust vs. DUI/age). As yet, no one has invented a crystal ball to know the better solution in advance.

The Jags chose to take the younger and more cost effective potential solution, understanding that they do have a 'bust risk'...but minimized it by moving up. Was it the correct choice? ...only time will have the answer.

[/quote]

Finally, someone who gets it! I agree with you 100%! By selecting Harvey instead of Allen or Taylor they are saying, "We are betting on the future! We may not win now, but we could if he develops quickly." Hopefully, it will secure our place at the top of the AFC South for a long, long time! ....only time will have the answer.

RE: One Persons Opinion on the Jags Draft

ATLjag — Mon, 05 May 2008 16:57:08 GMT

The draft is a crapshoot, with 1st rounders far more apt to pay off than later rounders (hence, they are exponentially more valuable). Yes, there are many first rounders that fail....but there are far more 3rd and 7th rounders that fail as a percentage. The draft value charts were built statistically using real historical data on the 'goodness' of the selections at that particular pick. Yes, they could have chosen a DE later in the draft, but his probability of being a solid or impactful player was significantly lower.

RE: One Persons Opinion on the Jags Draft

JaxonJag24 — Sun, 04 May 2008 17:28:38 GMT

[quote][b]tremele (5/3/2008)[/b][hr][quote][b]JaxonJag24 (4/28/2008)[/b][hr]

The Jaguars filled a need in the 1st round in a big way. Derrick Harvey is one of the best RDE in this draft and why the Jags vaulted 18 spots to get him. The other potential choice, Phillip Merling, who was still available at the 26th spot where the Jags moved up from, is too similar, however, to what the Jags already have in Paul Spicer and Reggie Hayward and why they felt the move was worth it. The Jaguars needed someone who could be a force coming around Peyton Manning's blind side. But, they gave up an awful lot to get him (picks #26, 71, 89, 125, 158) when they could have had their choice of two proven Pro Bowl players in either Jared Allen (picks #26, 143, 159) or Jason Taylor (picks #26 or 58) for less! However, youth was served here which was very important. The pressure is now on Harvey to take this team to the Division title, the Conference Championship game and become a future Pro Bowler. If he doesn't, considering what they gave up or could have had, this pick could be considered a bust. If he does, well, you know what that means.

What improved this draft class significantly was jumping up and getting Quentin Groves in the 2nd. This was a guy the Jags could have targeted in the 1st. Groves is a vicious tackler and has amazing quickness for someone 6'3" 260 pounds. Most importantly, he hates QBs. He will have ample opportunity to show off his distaste in new Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams' blitz packages.

The good thing is, neither Groves or Harvey will be required to be everydown linemen early on. They will be able to learn the system and develop. But, when its a definite passing situation, having these two on the field at the sime time attacking from the rightside will wreak havoc and create all sorts of opportunities for the defense.

The two 5th round picks were for depth only. After giving away most of their draft picks, that was about all they could do. The curious thing is: Does drafting a CB, when they needed depth at Safety, signal the move of Brian Williams to SS?

Perhaps, the best value was in the 7th round. After losing LaBrandon Toefield to FA, we needed a back-up RB behind Fred Taylor and Maurice Drew. Chauncey Washington more than fits that role and was a steal. At 212 pounds and 4.4 speed, he hits the hole with authority and will be a needed work horse in the 4th Quarter when the Jags have a comfortable lead and are looking to run out the clock. Washington doesn't have a lot of wear and tear on his body either after sitting out for two years in USC head coach Pete Carroll's doghouse. If he proves he can hang onto the football, he has a shot at producing more than a back-up role in the future.

Overall, the Jags significantly addressed their need in a big way. The question will be, whether they were right. As Jaguars fans are all to well aware, drafting in the 1st round is not a guarantee. We'll find out soon enough as Training Camp is only two months away.

[/quote]

I quit reading after that because you are way off. For the jaguars to move up that far would have taken a the whole draft class and part of next years normally. This is the best trade up for value I have ever heard of or seen.

Also, the Jaguars couldn't have gotten Allen for that asking price. Read my ask vic question on May 2nd (Tyler from Coon Rapids, IA) it would be nearly impossible for that to happen. You need to think about the value they got in return for Allen, it would have taken more from us to do so. For some reason people fail to realize this.[/quote]

Tyler from Coon Rapids, IA,

I'm glad you're so confident. But, I don't know how you can think trading two thirds and a fourth round pick to move up and draft an unproven commodity is more valuable than trading the same or less for Pro Bowl talent DEs Jared Allen or Jason Taylor. The question will always be would you rather spend $30 million of guaranteed money for a car that you know has the utmost power and performance of it's class or $15 million on a car that could be as fast, could use a few tune-ups to get there, but could also be tossed away for scrap metal? Likewise, I don't think we'll know whether this was "the best trade up for value (you've) ever heard of or seen" for a few years from now. We need to see how Harvey performs out in an NFL uniform before that statement can be confirmed or denied. Perhaps, we won't know that for a fact for another 3-4 years from now! And let's not spew out Draft Trade Value Chart numbers. You can't quantify the unquantifiable! Besides, I disagree with that statement since I personally think trading a 3rd and 5th to Green Bay for Mark Brunell was better.

Now let's examine the facts. There have been a number of DEs taken in the 1st round that haven't amounted to more than practice squad fodder. At least Allen and Taylor have more than proven themselves and would help out the Jags pass rush immediately, which is essentially why they spent so much to move up. I'm not saying that Derrick Harvey is going to be a bust, but I'm saying it was a lot to give up for a player who hasn't played a down in the NFL. Also, look at the rounds in which Allen (4th Rd) and Taylor (3rd Rd) were taken. History has proven that there probably was an Allen or Taylor available in the 3rd or 4th rounds this year. I know I'm going to be keeping an eye on Jeremy Thompson out of Wake Forest.

I took a look at DE's taken in the 1st Rd of the draft since 2000. Gaines Adams had a solid rookie campaign with 6 sacks in 16 starts. But, Jamaal Anderson, pick #8 didn't have one sack in 16 starts. Now you could say Anderson played for a below level team, the Atlanta Falcons, who didn't get many sack opportunities because teams were running all over them. The same could be said for Allen and Taylor. Taylor played for a 1-16 team and still had 10 sacks. Allen 15.5 for another losing team. Imagine what they could do on a defense with the Jaguars supporting cast?

Excellent DEs have come out of the 2nd Day of the draft. Elvis Dumervil (4th Rd in 2006, 21 sacks, 10.5 avg), Mark Anderson (5th Rd. #159 in '06 17 sacks), Justin Tuck (3rd Rd. #74 in '05, 10 sacks in '07), Robert Mathis (5th Rd. #138 in '03, 42 sacks), and Aaron Kampman (5th Rd. #156 in '02, 41 sacks). You can't tell me you wouldn't want Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (drafted in the 5th #149) or Adalius Thomas (5th #186). And what about current Jags DEs? Reggie Hayward was a 3rd Round (Denver) selection in 2001 and Rob Meier was a 7th in 2000 and former Jag Bobby McCray was a 7th rounder in '04. History shows that somebody from the '08 draft class will be a Day Two steal.

Now, let's look at the success of 1st Rd DEs. Since 2000, Mario Williams, Will Smith, Julius Peppers, Dwight Freeny, and Justin Smith are the only real success stories. The same can't be said, however, for other 1st Rd. selections Erasmus James, Marcus Spears, Michael Haynes, Jerome McDougal, Bryan Thomas, Jamal Reynolds, or Courtney Brown (#1 selection overall).

Overall, drafting college football players is like trying to pick stocks. You can have all the analysis in the world to make the most educated decision possible, but, in truth, you really don't know how that stock is going to do. If we did, we'd all be rich (or at least the stock brokers would be billionaires)! If Derrick Harvey hits, becomes a Pro Bowl player or helps lead us to a Division title, Conference Championship or best of all a Super Bowl, then the Jags have made the right decision. If he doesn't, then we'll all wonder about what could have been if we traded for Jason Taylor or Jared Allen.

To say this opinion is "way off" is simply ignoring the facts: First Round DEs aren't always successful and, quite often, 2nd Day DEs become Pro Bowl Superstars!

At least we both can agree that Allen and Taylor have an incredible amount of ability at DE. And we both can agree that Derrick Harvey has a world of potential. But, until Harvey has proven it on the NFL stage, he's merely a project. You can't tell me that you know, without a shadow of doubt, that Derrick Harvey is going to play to the level of a Pro Bowl player. Does he have the potential to be better than Allen or Taylor? Absolutely. But, for now, we can only speculate on his potential and hope this was the right decision.

We have put our faith in the Jags FO and hope they do what's best to bring success to this franchise. I have trust in them that they have done that. The decision has been made and we can now look forward to Derrick Harvey putting on #91 and terrorizing QBs, along with Quentin Groves, for a long, long time.

RE: One Persons Opinion on the Jags Draft

Jagifornia — Sat, 03 May 2008 01:17:19 GMT

[quote][b]Chooch (4/28/2008)[/b]
2. Vernon Gholston, New York - Incredible athlete that has all of the tools available, but has been known to take plays off. Did he even play in the BCS game? This guy could do it all, but there are legitimate questions about his desire. Think John Abraham and remember that Abraham sat out a playoff game because he was going into Free Agency.[/quote]

My friend is an intern for the radio station in this area that covers the Raiders. He was informed by a well-informed Raiders source that Jay Richardson (DE, Ohio State) has said that Vernon Gholston was a "lazy as*" who NEVER put in the extra work; he just loafed around in practice because he was blessed with such great natural ability. This is not the kind of player I'd want on our team. Harvey is, by all reports, a hard worker, and I loved his post-draft interview when he said he was ready to get out and "make plays and sh*t". LOL

RE: One Persons Opinion on the Jags Draft

tremele — Sat, 03 May 2008 00:10:13 GMT

[quote][b]JaxonJag24 (4/28/2008)[/b][hr]

[/quote]

RE: One Persons Opinion on the Jags Draft

Project_2501 — Thu, 01 May 2008 01:54:06 GMT

[quote][b]Bill4Jags (4/28/2008)[/b][hr]If they do good everyone is happy. :) If they do bad everyone is sad. :([/quote]

Someone finally gets it.

RE: One Persons Opinion on the Jags Draft

TheSpacePope — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 16:52:49 GMT

He's not like Gholston.. he doesn't just stay blocked once engaged.. he'll rip, chop, swim - do anything to break the blockers hold and get the ball carrier.

We'll have to wait and see... I'm excited.

RE: One Persons Opinion on the Jags Draft

Chooch — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 16:45:04 GMT

I think that he's plenty strong enough to slam an OT when moving upfield, but how will he do when Steve Hutchinson kicks out on him for a sweep? Can he stick his foot in the ground and hold the point then? Not many guys can, but it's something that he will have to learn how to do.

RE: One Persons Opinion on the Jags Draft

TheSpacePope — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 16:42:43 GMT

Hmmm.. I've watched Groves knock plenty of tackles on their butts.

He did put up 30 reps, you know.. I wouldn't say he's not strong. He'll only get stronger.

RE: One Persons Opinion on the Jags Draft

Chooch — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 16:39:16 GMT

The more that I think about the players in this draft, the more I am convinced that D. Harvey has the best chance to develop into the best stand-alone pass-rusher from the '08 class.

Consider the top rated players and their characteristics:

1. Chris Long, St. Louis - Probably the most complete DE in the draft, but he isn't going to scare anyone off the edge. If he can get you 8-10 sacks a year, it's gravy. It's my opinion that no DE in this class can hold the point and chase down runners like him, but he isn't going to rock an OT back with his first step.

2. Vernon Gholston, New York - Incredible athlete that has all of the tools available, but has been known to take plays off. Did he even play in the BCS game? This guy could do it all, but there are legitimate questions about his desire. Think John Abraham and remember that Abraham sat out a playoff game because he was going into Free Agency.

3. Lawrence Jackson, Seattle - Long-time starter that is probably going to have a 12 year career. Won't scare you off the edge, but if you aren't paying attention he'll beat you and put the QB on his back. Probably a dyed-in-the-wool LDE that can hold the point and give you 6-10 sacks a year. The number could be higher, but I don't know that he has the first step to consistently produce pressure.

4. Phillip Merling, Miami - Incredible hard worker that goes until the whistle blows. Rated just below C. Long as being an all-around DE more due to experience and field knowledge than anything. The most telling thing about him is that he was drafted by a team switching to a 3-4. Is probably going to remind you of New England's Richard Seymour once he refines his game some.

5. Calais Campbell, Arizona - Insane measureables, but was that Junior year indicative of his future? Lots of folks think highly of him, and I can understand why, he has shown the ability to dominate at the NCAA level. However, is he going to develop past where he is right now? Big time upside with him if he can.

6. Quentin Groves, Jacksonville - Probably the best pass rusher right now, but he tips the Defense's hand once he steps on the field. Doesn't have the strength right now to hold a point, but has speed to burn. He could turn into a O. Umenyiora type that beats the OT with his speed and that is what will keep him on the field on Downs 1 & 2.

7. Jason Jones, Tennessee - Small school guy that would probably be best served as a 3-4 DE. Not really quick, and might be maxed out as far as size/weight is concerned. Will get his numbers on hustle and determination, but does he have the raw abilities that a player needs to make a difference on Sundays?

Again, this is just my personal opinion, and I don't have a whole lot riding on it besides Message Board bragging rights, but I think that Harvey has a combination of Quickness, Speed, Strength, Growth Potential and Production that no other DE in this class has. We might finally have our every-down DE.

RE: One Persons Opinion on the Jags Draft

maize n blue — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 15:51:10 GMT

[quote][b]TheSpacePope (4/28/2008)[/b][hr]I don't think Merling will work as a 4-3 end in the NFL.[/quote]

I think we know everything we need to know about Merling and Campbell's ability to effect the passer by what teams drafted them. They are both going to be 5 techniques...guys that hold the point, not rush the passer.

RE: One Persons Opinion on the Jags Draft

Stigma — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 15:44:35 GMT

[quote][b]TheSpacePope (4/28/2008)[/b][hr]I don't think Merling will work as a 4-3 end in the NFL.[/quote]

I agree that Phillip Merling is NOT in the same class as Derrick Harvey in terms of being a pass rush DE.

RE: One Persons Opinion on the Jags Draft

TheSpacePope — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 15:24:14 GMT

I don't think Merling will work as a 4-3 end in the NFL.

RE: One Persons Opinion on the Jags Draft

Stigma — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 14:57:34 GMT

Sticking with the original picks going into the draft, here are my picks:

Rd 1(26): Phillip Merling - DE - Clemson

Rd 2(58): Tavares Gooden - OLB - Miami

Rd 3(71): DaJuan Morgan - S - N.C. State

Rd 3(78): Dre Moore - DT - Maryland

Rd 4(125): Trae Williams - CB - S. Fla.

Rd 5(143): Dennis Dixon - QB - Oregon

Rd 5(158): Carl Nicks - OT - Nebraska

Rd 5(159): Brian Johnston - DE - Gardner Webb

RE: One Persons Opinion on the Jags Draft

Bill4Jags — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 14:37:29 GMT

If they do good everyone is happy. :) If they do bad everyone is sad. :(

RE: One Persons Opinion on the Jags Draft

jagabc6893 — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 13:43:28 GMT

BTW, just for fun, here's what I think we could have had:

1(26). DE Phillip Merling
2(43). S Tyrell Johnson (give up pick #89 to trade up)
3(71). RB Jamal Charles
4(125) OT Carl Nicks
5(143) LB Marcus Howard (more pass rush)
5(159) CB Trae Williams

While I applaud the F.O. for being agressive and not just sitting back and waiting to see what would happen, you have to admit this would have been a nice haul. Like I said, I will wait till January to pass judgement. Neutral on the move right now.

RE: One Persons Opinion on the Jags Draft

Chooch — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 13:26:57 GMT

The thing about that 'steep price' (and I agree that it was expensive) was that the cost has already been paid, so to speak.

Yes, the lack of draft picks for this year will probably hurt the depth in some spots, but when you consider the fact that we obtained a Top 10-15 selection and got to keep our Second Rounder, and we have a full draft next season, it's a pretty good haul. If these guys come around to be what they are expected to be, this draft could be the seminal moment of this Franchise, and we can still develop for the future.

RE: One Persons Opinion on the Jags Draft

jagabc6893 — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 13:25:15 GMT

I am going to get back to you guys in January with my opinion of the trade and giving up so much to get Harvey. Until then, I will just say "let's wait and see". Hopefully, Harvey and Groves play lights out and they are worth it. We shall see.

RE: One Persons Opinion on the Jags Draft

ATLjag — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 13:02:17 GMT

This morning I looked at the draft and figured that if we would have just stuck with the pre-draft picks (no trades), we would have had something like:

1. DE Philip Merling, 2. RB Jamal Charles, 3a. S DaJuan Morgan, 3b. DT Dre Moore, 4. QB John David Booty, 5a. TE Kellen Davis, 5b. LB Jonathan Goff, and 5c. OT Carl Nicks.

As great as this list appears to me, each pick would be a likely backup this year, with some solid starters somewhere down the road...but likely no 'impact pro-bowl' type of guys. However, by trading up for DEs Harvey and Groves, I truly believe we obtained two potential impact pro-bowl type of players, that will have significant contribution this year. It is a steep price, but given the existing depth on this team, I do like the moves.

One Persons Opinion on the Jags Draft

JaxonJag24 — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 07:19:09 GMT